/biz/ - Business & Finance

People are literally buying because of the doom posting. Just wait until later this year when they sell because they're close to losing their shit and unemployment more than doubles.

>>54062607
>Buy before the FED pivots which has ALWAYS historically led to a 50% crash.

>>54062607
Go look at the history of the fear and greed index.
fear will usually max out for months on end. the price declining the whole time.
greed does the same in a bull run, it's 95 at 30k and 95 at 60k.

so, buy after a few months of extreme fear. not right when it begins. i'm telling you this to help you.

>>54062661
On this day 3 years ago, the following was held as consensus belief: 10% of the entire global population was slated for death. In response the global economy was shut down and we went to the brink of global financial collapse.

On this day 3 years ago, I took my entire liquid networth and violently slurped bitcoin between 4k-4.7k near the absolute bottom. The following week, I was unemployed, and within the span of 3 weeks the national unemployment rate shot up to ~15%.

3 days later I had another job. Within the span of 3 weeks, the FED reversed course and began massive stimulus programs. The govt signed a massive stimulus package. The stock market bottomed and financial crisis was averted.

3 months later, I was receiving wages from my new job, severance pay, government stimulus checks. I was earning more money faster than ever before. The covid panic was a blessing, a great blessing, for those willing to look beyond the panic of the herd.

>>54062695
>>54062715
fair enough, perhaps we haven't seen peak panic? But we are close. We are reaching into irrational levels of fear.

By "and you're not buying", I don't mean "go all in right this fucking second". But clearly, we are close to the moment of peak panic, where they govt/FED feel they must respond. The opportunity is in adding risk, not taking it off, at these levels or lower.

It is not politically palatable for the govt/FED to reverse course on inflation unless they are given a good reason to do so. A banking crisis is a perfectly good reason for them to reverse monetary/fiscal policy. And the second wave of inflation which comes as a result will make the previous one look like a walk in the park... remember what that did to asset prices?

>>54062821
Great for you. I bought Bitcoin 11 years ago and continued to work and save and had to do the job of three people during the covid hysteria which I warned my boss about, who failed to prepare for it. Then I was laid off with no assistance after helping to keep their business afloat.

>>54062821
This board is full of broke hillbillies and streetshitters. Don't waste your breath.

>>54063074
For those with ears to hear, let them hear.

>>54062607
Fed pivot causes a very short lived and moderately weak rally (2-3 weeks max) followed by the big crash of 40-60% historically speaking. If they pivot it’s time to go short (at least a month out) and take some profits

>>54062607
posts like this is exactly why we are going even lower

>>54063003
When they say maximum fear they mean that nobody and I mean nobody, not even a single redditor is bullish anymore and they have all entirely exited the market with massive losses or liquidations. We are hitting the panic stage, which kicks off before any fear actually comes

>>54062607
I wouldnt Buy yet, I am betting that there si going to be a Big down wick, maybe like 2020 or 2009 when something gets fucked, and then I Will Buy

>>54062607
>>govt/FED already showing first signs of reversing monetary policy

You were doing well until you typed out this retarded sentence.
NO pivot this year. Not next.
Pivotniggers are desperate mental cuckolds.

>>54063260
Wait for the fed pivot. We may see up to a nice juicy 10% decline in a week fueled by panic, but a fed pivot announcement would cause a final relief rally

>>54063287
did I say pivot? Is a full blown pivot required?

You will see the FED put into a position where they keep FFR high with one hand and perform "definitely not QE" with the other. This will stabilize financial conditions enough to allow asset prices to rise again and start another short lived and violent bull market - short lived (~3 years or so) because typically the business cycle compresses throughout periods of secular inflation. Inflation readings will be coming down rather hard (long and variable lags) whether or not the FED "pivots" if they simply maintain their current stance. Remember how long it took for the inflation to show up in CPI/PCE data? A year and a fucking half. Yet asset prices had already exploded higher and we were near peak mania. Similar thing now: the disinflation will take hold sooner than CPI/PCE can or will reflect, and those reports will only show it well after the fact. Asset prices, however, will show it in real time.

And you are assuming they won't pivot entirely like its a foregone conclusion. So you expect them to remain tight long enough to plunge us into outright deflation? That would allow them to full blown pivot. Either way, the pendulum of fiscal/monetary policy has clearly shifted momentum - we are headed back to a more accommodative stance relatively soon.

>>54062607
I thought you said
>decomposing
Now i can't get over it.

>>54063722
>violent bull market - short lived (~3 years or so)
in WHAT assets? risk assets? or hard assets?

I can't afford them to inflate the property market again personally

>>54062607
>govt/FED already showing first signs of reversing monetary policy
No. The shitty banks are going to be allowed to fail. This is the new order where bail-ins replace bail-outs.

>>54062821
Glad you're with us on this day.

>>54063287
if they dont pivot more bank collapses are inevitable lol. i find it hard to believe they are going to accept those consequences.

>>54063793
This.
In the US there are 4,844 federally-regulated and insured banks. A few of them crash routinely. Then the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. arrives in town, takes over the assets, bails out depositors and oversees a merger with a stronger bank.

NO PIVOT.

Pivotnoiggers are mental cuckolds that can't seem to understand that Bitcoin is where it is today and rising because it is the best asset class in the world, not just a product of money printing.
If all of the pivotniggers and shitcoiners literally dropped dead today, the world and Bitcoin's ecosystem would be a better place.

>>54063828
>can't seem to understand that Bitcoin is where it is today and rising because it is the best asset class in the world
BTC is a complete clown show. It's chain is bloated with dickbutt jpegs while real transactions are stuck in the mempool.

>>54063826
>if they dont pivot more bank collapses are inevitable lol.

And? Shitty businessess with crappy loans into risky, failing start-up tech bullshit companies that never had hopes of being profitable deserve to fail and should be allowed to fail.
If you can't break the shacklers of your mental cuckoldry to MUH PIVOT, I have no sympathy for your loser ass.

>>54062607
If you’re a true believer in bitcoin and cryptocurrency you’d actively participate in the bank run on Monday

>>54063855
Your premined, centralized, illegal security of a shitcoin of choice will neither exist nor be worth more than zero in less than 2 years.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is stronger than ever and going on 12 years. Institutional adoption hasn't even remotely taken place.

>>54063909
BTC has been propped up by the easy money policy but that is now dead. Michael Saylor is the canary in the coal mine.

>>54063074
not you though, you're just built different

>>54063779
all assets but particularly those most sensitive to liquidity flows i.e. riskiest assets

real estate reacts so slowly to financial conditions that it could be falling as everything else is recovering ala 2008-2012. Personally think it will drop or crab for years, unless we see full blown pivot

>>54063909
>Meanwhile, Bitcoin is stronger than ever
Really? Than ever??

>>54063860
>deserve to fail and should be allowed to fail
You're right, but that's not the issue. The issue is the systemic risk. Bank runs cause bank runs. Where does it end? Until the existing financial system has completely collapsed and the western world has entered a new dark age?

Look back to herbert hoover after the 1929 crash, which is the most clear cut example of the policy you are advocating. He held a strong stance of nonintervention in the banking system, trusting in the "invisible hand" of the free market. Simultaneously the FED maintained a hawkish monetary policy stance citing "inflation risks". Where did it lead? Widespread bank failure, >20% unemployment, an across the board drop in the standard of living - the great depression.

What put an end to the bank run contagion? In 1933, after FDR took office, he coordinated with the FED to stop the bank runs. Within a week of executing a well thought out plan, the bank runs had stopped, which formed the beginning of a massive multi-year rally until the FED went back to tightening just a few years later.

Long story short, the great depression could have been avoided entirely if the govt/FED took action sooner rather than later. You don't have to like the way the system works to recognize how it works and what the proper policy response is to ensure it keeps working. Nonintervention is NOT a choice in a fiat system - and that's what the govt/FED, and us as a result, are stuck with.

>>54064151
>Bank runs cause bank runs. Where does it end?
It ends with all the small depositors getting paid in full. The bank and the share holders will eat shit.

I'm generally bullish, but people are dumb and emotional. They'll sell off for a few days, but there isn't any real systematic risk from the bankruns.

and let me just add, our entire financial system is predicated on an ever expanding debt which can never be paid off. If the whole thing goes into default, the financial system collapses, the FED and the govt with it.

That's the last thing the govt/FED will allow to happen. Faced between the choice of utter collapse and inflation, they will choose inflation. You will never make money betting on the end of the world - even if you are right, there will be nothing left to buy. The surest way to make money is to bet on nothing ever happens when everyone is calling for the happening of all happenings.

>>54063981
Got 'em

>>54064233
Not that we know anyways. SVB clearly runs deeper than just Silicon Valley though

>>54064249
The thing is we had that face ripping rally in the AMs on Friday that decimated volatility and made puts cheaper, not to mention that a lot of retail sold for a loss during that rally. The other thing is the feds only announced they seized SVB after market close so no bad goyim could buy puts.

>>54064233
> isn't any real systematic risk from the bankruns
Right, the issue isn't the exposure to SIVB. The issue is the emotional, panicked reaction to the "what if I'm next?" internalized scream of doom. Any sign of exposure amplifies that scream into a voice saying "I TOLD YOU SO, I TOLD YOU SO" until the person is overcome with panic and, like a puppet on a string, rushes to act on that primal impulse of self perseverance.

USDC depeg is a prime example. All said and done they lost maybe, what, $700m tops in reserves? Yet the peg break priced in a reserve depletion of >$5b at the lows. Panic drives bank runs, not logic. Exploit it.

>>54062607
Is that you Jim?

>>54063722
>I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT PIVOT
>Also btw let me talk to you about a pivot
dellusional

>>54063722
good post. what sector benefits the most from high rates and "not QE"? Oil/steel companies w low debt?

>>54065148
yep anything with positive cashflow and returns beyond the risk free rate

ironically includes banks (the ones that dont fail)

>>54063722
4.75% fed funds is already historically accommodative. A pivot now will spell a decade plus of disastrous stagflation in an already battered economy. That would probably actually kill US hegemony

This post is too good for this board. I hate this website so much.

>>54062607
US reached debt ceiling so they cannot bail out anymore. No more borrowing means no more money means no more profits. It is happening for real this time.

>>54064384
The thing that midwitted retards on Twitter and autists on 4channel don't understand is that they're in an echochamber. All their parasocial frogposting "friends" are talking about it, so they assume that main street is talking about it too. Meanwhile, 99% of people have no clue this is happening.

>>54062821
>3 months later, I was receiving wages from my new job, severance pay, government stimulus checks. I was earning more money faster than ever before. The covid panic was a blessing, a great blessing, for those willing to look beyond the panic of the herd.
It's so funny that you're too stupid to realize that this is exactly why you are completely fucked along with everyone else. You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of your ignorance.

If you think the situation you just described is evidence that the future is bright, then you don't understand the situation.

>>54065325
>4.75% fed funds is already historically accommodative
maybe with those historical debt levels, but our debt level is at historical highs relative to GDP. 4.75% is extremely restrictive given current level of debt

>>54065490
>you are completely fucked along with everyone else
have fun in your little doomsday bunker. I used to think like you, you will get nowhere in life being a doomer

>>54065614
Sounds like austerity measures need to be taken then. Quantitative tightening after a decade of applied modern monetary theory is needed to get rid of the tumors in our economy. We are here solely because of kicking the can down the road from 2008. Attempting to kick the can down the road again will result in disaster

>>54063003
How are we close to maximum fear though?

People still think 16k was the bottom. They're literally sitting there as we speak conducting TA with absolute certainty that 16k was the botttom. They will lose all sense of direction when that assumption fails. They still think the market can hold the gains it made in the bull trap.

Real fear doesn't even begin until we begin our descent into central dogma.

>>54065674
I'll have fun being comfy with my wife watching rats try to figure out the maze. You'll inevitably sleep walk yourself into a financial crisis because you're ignorant and greedy. Have fun dealing with reality when you finally come back to it. Don't worry, I'll buy your bags in less than a year buddy.

Again, hilarious that you don't understand how fucked up an economy is when it pumps and dumps like this. These are the same conditions that always precede major structural collapses. Can't whipsaw the markets for too long before you cut a piece off.

>>54063826
>if they dont pivot more bank collapses are inevitable lol. i find it hard to believe they are going to accept those consequences.

let them die.

>>54062607
you're neither right or wrong, your timing is just off.
wait to buy until Q4 when the big burtha hits and they bail out the banks. it wont happen yet.

>>54063826
>if they don't pivot my bags aren't gonna pump

>>54062607
There was doomposting before covid hit the markets too. Did you buy then, retard?

>>54062607
board is full of shills hyping up the latest globohomo narrative

>>54064249
You literally just can't think big enough. You think that fiat is eternal. Why? Why do you have this ridiculous assumption that everything stays the same forever?

You really need to do some research on financial history. You're woefully ignorant. You can't know where this is going if you're just looking around at data from the 21st century.

It won't be the end of the world. It's the beginning of the next one. THAT is your fundamental blindspot. You can't even imagine a new system coming into play before your very eyes.

The last thing the govt/Fed want isn't to prevent a financial collapse... it's falling off the top of the geopolitical pyramid.

>>54062607
new meta forming too, get the fuck in or stay poor(most will, many such cases, sad!)
it's called Old Crypto and it's real and heterosexual

>>54064233
>>54064384
How old are you two? I'm guessing you're early 20s, maybe even teenagers. All I know is you two definitely didn't have any financial awareness in 2008. You don't seem to really understand how a financial crisis actually develops.

If you weren't waiting for the second shoe to drop after FTX, then you have no idea what's going on.

>>54063969
>Bitcoin is dead
Damn bro I can't keep count of how many times bitcoin has died up to now.

>>54065705
>How are we close to maximum fear though?
because policy makers are already dancing around the "bailout" question. The fact that they even have to mention it and pretend they aren't considering bailouts, tells you that they ARE considering bailouts, but they simply want to project an air of confidence and hope the situation resolves itself through the "invisible hand" of the market - when in reality the market will shit and piss and cry like a spoiled child until it gets what it wants - more liquidity.

>People still think 16k was the bottom
maybe it was, I won't pretend to know. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a covid-esque nuke to 10-12k. But it would be short lived and a moment of peak opportunity. There's no guarantee that we will see it though, as govt/FED may frontrun the crisis quickly enough to prevent panic from getting to that level. Just keep plenty of liquidity available for the event that does happen, you'll be golden... but the risk of missing the opportunity to accumulate at decent discounts now, based on the assumption that a covid-esque crash will happen, is a greater risk in opportunity than of financial loss IMO. As said, if the crisis brings out widespread panic, it will be short lived.

>>54062607
If nothing will happen, my money won't disappear.
If it will happen, money will be useless anyway.

>>54065939
Bitcoin isn't dead, but corporate welfare QE paypigs deserve the rope.
>I deserve to be rich because I can borrow money cheaper than everyone else
>what value do I provide?
>why, I borrow money cheaper than you. That's what value I provide!
>fuck you, I got mine
>w-wait. you're raising rates?

>>54065879
which they are bound to do eventually.

>>54065773
>>54065879
>>54065919
I've studied plenty of financial history. There are slow collapses and fast collapses. From what I've gathered you assume we are 100% destined for a fast collapse. Yet the only fast collapse of a well developed country I can think of in the recent past would be weimar germany, and that was under a very specific set of circumstances - and they were by no means a leading country of the world at the time, although they were getting to that point. The brits/french cucked them because they were jelly of Germany's rapid economic advancement, at the same time that the german government was overrun with socialist ideologues. But that's an exception, not a rule. The rest have been slow, grinding declines. The british, the dutch, the spanish, the french, the chinese, the greeks, the romans... I recall no instance where a regional superpower went through a fast collapse. It has always been a slow decline taking place over decades/centuries, until the point they are no longer a superpower, THEN they can experience a fast collapse. The US may be on a trajectory of terminal decline - yet it remains the global superpower of our time. Fast collapse, based on historical precedent, is practically impossible until the US truly fades into irrelevance.

>>54066248
this, doomposters are retarded emotional women who think that real life is like an apocalypse movie where one day you wake up and society is gone. history doesn't work like that, collapses of world powers either happen when everyone else gangs up on them in a war (literally impossible because of america's geography and nukes), or a slow decline.

>>54063828
>because it is the best asset class in the world

>>54064151
>Until the existing financial system has completely collapsed and the western world has entered a new dark age?
The West has already fallen. Let the billions die.

>>54062661
Unemployment never goes up. There could be like 15 people in the country with jobs and they would still say there is 5% unemployment. It's a fake statistic.

>>54062607
It's already happening. It was probably planned this way from the start.

>>54065889
>>54065889
>>54065889

it's only doom for you
it's a win for me

>>54065703
They could not have picked a worse time to clean up the mess